By: Nathan C. & Nevaeha R.
A controversial and future defining topic, the upcoming presidential election, which will be decided on November 5th 2024. Until then, the outcome is unknown, however polls and many sources help determine what the most likely outcome may be and what that means for the United States of America.
Vice President Kamala Harris is the presidential candidate for the Democratic Party, her proposed policies according to an article by BBC earlier this month include: banning price gouging, signing legislation for abortion rights, raising taxes on businesses and Americans making more than $400,000 a year. Harris supports the Affordable Care act, combating climate change, increasing the minimum wage, and federal legalization of cannabis.
Vice President Kamala Harris is also a former California Senator. Within her career she has continuously advocated for women's rights, access to healthcare, and criminal justice reform. She also made history by being the first woman of South Asian and African American descent to be in these positions.
Former President Donald Trump is presidential candidate for the republican party, according to CBS News, he aims to repeal and replace the Affordable Care act with private insurance, deregulation of the energy sector, tax cuts aimed to stimulate economic growth with less regulations on businesses. He also wants to implement anti-immigration policies paired with a massive deportation campaign, he also would like to terminate the department of education and implement anti-LGBT policies.
Former President Trump was the 45th President of the United States. During his Presidency he passed policies that gave tax reforms, deregulation, and a variety of foreign policy shifts.
That is an incredibly brief overview of each candidate's proposed policies and them as individuals but knowing that now, who’s predicted to win? According to FiveThirtyEight, a polling site by ABC News, the election is incredibly neck to neck. Vice President Kamala Harris has a very slight edge over Trump with her winning 54 out of 100 simulations. With these simulations it is unknown whether who will actually win and has been stated it will simply be up the the swing states, which are states with equal amount of support from both parties making it unknown who will win that state.
Another poll, done by NBC News, has demonstrated that Trump and Harris are getting the same numbers within the poll. RealClearPolitics also shared a poll that showcases that Harris is leading the national polls with 48.5% compared to Trump's 46.1%.
Overall looking at a variety of polls and sources it is clear there is no absolute outcome that can be confirmed as of now for the presidential election. This is more evident when looking back to 2016 when a variety of polls predicted Hillary Clinton to win. FiveThirtyEight predicted a 71.4% chance of Clinton winning and Pew Research Center described Clinton’s chance of winning as anywhere between 70-99%. However, despite all those predictions Trump still won the swing states and won the election.
Overall it is difficult to predict the next Presidential election and it will all truly be decided on November 5th, 2024.